Webcast of the Analyst / Investor Conference on October 18, 2018
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€16.2 billion in net sales for the first nine months of 2018, up 3.9% at constant exchange rates thanks to a robust 2.2% gain from the price-mix effect
2018 markets scenario revised, EBIT guidance refined and structural free cash flow confirmed.
Third-quarter net sales up on favorable prior-year comparatives, with a 2.9% increase in volumes and, as expected, a 0.5% positive impact from the price-mix effect as the environment weakened late in the period.
- Further market share gains in the 18-inch and larger Passenger car tire segment.
- 3% rebound in Truck tire sales.
- Sustained strong growth in the Specialty businesses, up 9%.
- Firm 0.5% gain from the price-mix effect, led by disciplined margin management.
- 3.4% increase from changes in the business base, following the arrival of Fenner in the Specialty businesses and the deconsolidation of TCi.
Given the significant decline in the Passenger car & light truck and Truck tire markets late in the third quarter and the further weakness expected in the fourth quarter, the Group has revised its 2018 markets scenario, notably in China.
As a result, the Group has refined its guidance and now expects:
- A slight increase in volumes over the full year. Fourth-quarter performance will be driven by sustained market share gains in the 18-inch and larger segment of the Passenger car and Light truck business and in the Specialty markets. Full-year volumes will be affected by the major price increases already introduced to offset the sharp currency depreciation in emerging markets.
- A year-on-year increase of at least €200 million in operating income from recurring activities, at constant exchange rates, with no net impact from changes in the price mix and raw materials costs in the second half and competitiveness plan gains offsetting inflation for the year. At the same time, the Group reaffirms the competitiveness plan’s target of €1.2 billion in savings over the 2017-2020 period
- More than €1,100 million in structural free cash flow in 2018
- a slightly positive volume growth over the year. The fourth quarter will benefit from continued market share gains in 18 inches and over in Passenger Car and Light Truck and Specialty markets. Volumes for the year will be affected by the significant price increases already implemented to offset the sharp depreciation of emerging market currencies.
- an increase in operating income from ordinary activities of at least €200 million compared to 2017, at constant exchange rates, with a neutral price/mix/materials net effect in the second half and a competitiveness plan to offset inflation over the year. On this occasion, the Group reaffirms its objective of a €1,200 million competitiveness plan for the period 2017-2020
- 2018 Structural Free Cash Flow in excess of €1,100 million
- Contracts envisaged at this stage:
- Passenger car and light truck growth of 1.5% with a segment 18 inches and over up 10% and a slight recovery in the Chinese market
- Stable truck
- Specialty activities up between 4% and 5%.
- Contribution of acquisitions* for approximately +€150 million of ROSAC compared to 2018, including the first synergies resulting from the very successful integration of Fenner.
*Subject to the regulatory approvals expected for the acquisition of Camso in November 2018
Comparison with 2017
|9M 2018 - new organization||9M 2017 - new organization||% Variation - new organization||9M 2017 published|